Serving up 2025’s Fraud Trends: Key Challenge & Takeaways from the UKHE Birmingham Roundtable

Rachel Whales • November 19, 2025

Admissions and compliance specialists from six institutions across the UK gathered at The Ivy in Birmingham last week for an afternoon of data-sharing, sector insight and candid discussion. Hosted by Qualification Check, the session explored emerging risks in global credential verification, the realities of today’s admissions pressures, and what future solutions may look like for smarter and sustainable automation.

Framing the Conversation

Phil Dupont, QC’s Head of Business Solutions, set the scene for the afternoon’s hot topics by presenting real applicant data, highlighting the key fraud trends we’ve compiled throughout the recent September intake.

By holding our data under a magnifying glass and creating an ongoing dialogue with our university partners, we’ve helped expose real-world threats that admissions teams need to be vigilant of, particularly during their peak intake season when internal resources are at capacity.

Behind the Scan

QR codes are becoming a prominent feature on transcripts and degree certificates in certain regions, and adapting to new technology for speed and convenience isn’t a bad thing. But QR codes can create a false sense of security and direct users to non-official websites that confirm the authenticity of qualifications.

In India, a top sending country for UK-based postgraduate study, fraud rates have slightly decreased year on year (4.9% in 2025 down to 2.5% in 2026 – which can be linked to lower visa refusals and lower numbers across the sector), we have seen an increase in fraud linked to Indian Standard XII cases and the QR codes on some of those certificates

Slipping through the Cracks

For fraudsters, timing is everything. As deadlines approach, Applicants also aware of how hectic this period can be for admissions and compliance teams, as they work tirelessly behind-the-scenes to help applicants secure their places and obtain CAS.

Based on our fraud statistics, we have seen an annual surge in fraud attempts during August and September, coinciding deadline dates. Applicants with Nigerian (19%), Canadian (15%) and Pakistan (8%) qualifications are three of the larger culprits this year, but it’s a movement that has caught wind internationally.

Rising Complexity and Regional Nuance

Across the room, there was a strong agreement that inflated grades are becoming more common, creating additional pressure on teams, shining a light on a now-frequent pattern: rejecting an application based on GPA one day, only for a revised transcript to arrive shortly after with a higher GPA than the previous version.

Indian’s Standard XII was touched upon, which remains the cornerstone qualification for undergraduate admissions. Most institutions noted that almost all UG decisions from India hinge on this single data point, with many national institutions relying heavily on platforms (such as DigiLocker) to strengthen confidence in authenticity.

The discussion also highlighted that applications from India have dipped, driven in part by changes to dependent visas. Wider questions emerged around other markets too, with interest in data from Nepal, Sri Lanka and East Africa.

Challenges in Pakistan, particularly around affiliated colleges, were also raised. The collective view was clear: where uncertainty exists, institutions still need to verify directly with the awarding body to ensure peace of mind and reliable audit trails.

AI in Admissions: Accept or Reject?

AI’s role in student applications continues to dominate debate. Some attendees noted longstanding cultural norms in certain markets, where personal statements are traditionally written or heavily assisted by third parties, complicating efforts to restrict AI use. However, the consensus leaned toward automation rather than AI systems that streamline processes without replacing human judgement.

Dan Hammond, QC’s Head of Product, reminded attendees that while generative tools excel at producing polished content, they remain unreliable at recognising anomalies. Past experiments using AI for document analysis surfaced challenges with false positives, reinforcing the need for cautious implementation.

New Tools for 2026 and Beyond

Looking ahead, several ideas gained strong support from attendees:

Confidence Scoring for Risk-Rating: Institutions see value in tools that quantify risk and help staff to triage applications more effectively.
Applicant Identity Assurance: There was enthusiasm for mechanisms that help confirm who is genuinely submitting an application: the applicant themselves or an agent acting on their behalf.
Sector Collaboration Platforms: Attendees expressed strong interest in creating a community for sharing insights and emerging risks enabling rapid, collective learning across institutions.

As the session concluded, the group agreed that the sector is facing a period of rapid change. Fraud sophistication is increasing, applicant behaviour is shifting, and compliance expectations continue to rise.

To navigate this ever-changing landscape, admissions and compliance teams will need:

Better data and earlier visibility of risk
More automation to reduce administrative burden
Stronger professional communities for shared learning

Qualification Check will continue working with institutions to alleviate these challenges by offering verification insights, real-time data, community discussions, and clear pathways that support the sector’s commitment to trust, integrity and student success.

Thank you to everyone who contributed to a lively, timely and important discussion.

Rachel Whales joined Qualification Check in 2022 as Head of Global Accounts, following similar roles at Experian, GBG, and Serif.

With over a decade of experience in account management and client success, Rachel leads Qualification Check’s Customer Success team, helping clients maximise value from the company’s products and services.