Earlier this week, higher education admissions and compliance professionals gathered at the Ivy Spinningfields in Manchester for a lunch of analysis and discussion. Hosted by Qualification Check, A New Course for Compliance offered a valuable forum to explore the evolving policy landscape and sample fresh verification data insights from around the world.

Led by Ross Porter of London Business School, who brings extensive expertise in international student policy and serves as Vice Chair of UKCISA’s Board of Trustees, the session came just ahead of the UKCISA annual conference and provided delegates with practical context to inform the months ahead.

A Global Snapshot: Fraud Risks Are Shifting

Qualification Check opened the lunch by presenting trends from their verification platform, a dataset encompassing hundreds of thousands of checks across several key recruitment markets.

The figures showed how rapidly the sector’s risk profile is changing.

India, long the focus of intense scrutiny, recorded a decline in fraud rates, dropping to 3.08% in the first five months of 2025, down from 7.27% in 2024. However, historic QC data also shows that fraud rates in this market can almost double in the final months of the cycle, as deadlines approach and late offer makers are processed.

Meanwhile, the United States and China, markets traditionally viewed as lower risk, saw fraud rates climb higher up from 2.91% to 5.19% and 0.82% to 3.71% respectively, challenging assumptions that applications from those countries require less attention.

Nigerian applicants remained the highest source of qualification fraud, continuing an upward trajectory that shows no sign of slowing.

For many institutions, these insights reinforced the importance of maintaining up-to-date intelligence rather than relying on historic perceptions of risk.

While this intake is still underway and trends may continue to evolve, Qualification Check will be sharing updated figures in their next webinar in July, giving institutions an opportunity to track emerging patterns as more data becomes available.

Understanding the Immigration White Paper: Proposals and Implications

Following the data update, Ross Porter then delivered an overview of the UK Immigration White Paper, a set of proposals outlining the government’s intended changes to immigration policy, likely to shape the sector’s future for years to come.

Some of the most consequential proposals included:

Tightening BCA Metrics

Sponsors will face stricter Benchmarked Compliance Assessment thresholds. A public rating system is proposed, where institutions will be issued RAG (Red, Amber, Green) ratings to make their compliance performance visible to all. For the first time, this means prospective students, agents and other stakeholders could see how each institution measures up.

Shortening the Graduate Visa

The Graduate Visa is set to be reduced from 24 months to 18 months, with no immediate clarity on arrangements for PhD graduates (though likely to remain at 3 years). This change could directly impact students currently planning their pathways.

Local Impact Consideration

Universities would be expected to demonstrate awareness of the local impact of their recruitment, particularly pressures on housing and public services. While reports suggest this may apply only to future growth, that distinction is not guaranteed.

Mandatory Agent Quality Framework (AQF) Sign-Up

While all UK institutions have already committed to the AQF, reporting requirements will be stepped up. Sponsors will be expected to attribute recruitment agent data to individual students through new fields in the Sponsorship Management System.

A Levy on International Student Income

Perhaps the most controversial proposal is a potential levy on income from international tuition fees, with a working example of 6% suggested in the technical annex. Though not yet final and subject to Autumn budget discussions, such a levy could apply as early as Autumn 2026, further straining institutional finances.

Tougher Approach to Foreign National Offenders

The bar for refusing entry or removing permission to stay will rise. Any criminal offence, not only those resulting in longer sentences, will trigger automatic Home Office referral, increasing the likelihood of refusals or removals.

English Language Requirements for Dependants

While student routes were not explicitly targeted this time, dependants will need to meet higher English proficiency standards. Many see this as the start of a broader tightening across the sector.

One of the starkest takeaways was the government’s clear ambition to significantly reduce net migration, not just increase compliance. The Home Office’s own projections estimate that the combined policy measures will result in 31,000 fewer international students, based on their modelling published alongside the White Paper. This is a reality institutions must prepare for now, both operationally and financially.

Discussion and Reflection: Are We Ready?

Ross led an engaging discussion that pressed delegates to consider the practical steps their institutions will need to take in response.

Key themes included:

The BCA and Public Ratings

Many attendees were confident they could locate last year’s BCA metrics, but few were certain they could monitor performance in real time. Ross emphasised that meeting the new thresholds will require not only procedural changes but also access to reliable, up-to-date data.

There was mixed sentiment about the proposed ratings. While compliance teams were determined to achieve a green rating, questions remained about whether senior leadership and prospective students would settle for amber, or whether this would become a competitive differentiator over time.

Tighter Restrictions on Criminal Convictions

The group explored whether institutions might need to introduce or expand pre-CAS criminal record checks, anticipating the risk of future refusals or enforcement action under the tougher regime.

Agent Reporting

Although all universities are already signed up to the AQF, new requirements to record agent details for every CAS will fundamentally change workflows and record-keeping.

English Language Policy

Even without new student-specific measures in this White Paper, Ross noted that the Home Office remains focused on English language standards. Recent surveys and scrutiny suggest that reliance on HEI assessments could still be challenged, and institutions should be clear on what losing that flexibility might mean.

Looking Ahead

As the lunch wrapped up, there was broad agreement that the time to prepare is now, not when policies are formally adopted. With most changes likely to take effect between Autumn 2025 and Spring 2026, universities have a limited window to adapt processes, build capacity and engage their communities in the changes ahead.

Looking ahead, participants discussed that simply meeting compliance thresholds will not be enough. Institutions will also need to focus on strengthening graduate outcomes, so that international students are better equipped for skilled roles after study. It also requires a more considered approach to recruitment, moving away from strategies focused purely on scale without regard for how students progress after graduation.

Qualification Check will continue to provide data, insights and forums to help the sector navigate these challenges with confidence.